Posted by
Beamer on Thursday, January 17, 2008 6:06:05 PM
Stocks these days are essentially a popularity contest.
Different firms tout buys as a "must buy" and "must invest"
and people invest sums of money with the thoughts of turning it over soon for a
quick profit and not "what is this stock capable of earning" This has
been the problem in the tech bubble. Under the same manner of thought,
hitchhiker points out, that if you hear things are bad and you have some
friends who got laid off and you stop spending money....and the rest of the
sheeple follow your lead, this "popularity contest" is the exact thing
that causes recessions in the first place.
Just as the tech bubble burst, interest rates were cut to
fuel housing, typically a win win. We are now seeing the fallout of that.
Interest rates are at an all time low, and yet mortgage companies are at a
fraction of the employment they were 3 years ago. An interest rate of 2% sounds
good, but if the home you refinanced 3 years ago is now worth 75% of what it
was, refinancing your way out of an ARM or other financial troubles cannot happen, regardless of the rate.
Popularity contests aside of the point:
Countrywide is gone and pulling BoA stocks with them.
Citicorp writing off 20b and 20k jobs.
PNC, WAMU, Mellon bank all whistling the same tune.
Numerous tech companies posting lower expectations (read
losses).
New home starts down 15%, the worst in 15 years.
Manufacturing down.
Purchasing down.
Inflation the highest jump in 30 years.
Stocks tumble yet again.
Is the American dollar worth more than the "loonie"
yet?
Let's assume that tomorrow bargain hunters on wall street
start purchasing presumed eminent fire sale prices. Is this American investors
resurrecting the Phoenix from the ashes, or foreign investment firms purchasing
debtor's prison rights on our children. (yes I know the foreign purchases would
spur growth, but at whose expense?)
I own a franchisee restaurant in New England and have
seen indicators for the past few months that things aren't as rosy as we'd like
to believe.
There is a difference between stating, I won't buy that
gum-ball because of the recession, and whistling past the graveyard of denial.